Courtesy NFL.com

I pity anyone selecting second overall in their fantasy football drafts this season. Picking first is all too easy. Just announce LaDainian Tomlinson and you can mail in the rest of your picks.

Normally, fantasy owners would love the second spot, because if someone is stupid enough to pass on Tomlinson, you get him at two, after all the belly laughs are over. If your comrade stays the course and takes the NFL MVP, you just take the next-best guy - the sure thing. Of course that's Kansas City running back Larry Johnson.

Not so fast. This is the year that number two overall is the worst place to be, because there's no sure thing. It's certainly not Johnson, who could break many fantasy owners hearts in 2007.

If you can trade out of the two hole, do it now. If not, think twice or 10 times before taking Larry Johnson.

Sure, Johnson had nearly 2,200 yards in total offense in 2006, along with 19 touchdowns. And, obviously, Johnson is the only legitimate weapon in KC this coming season. So, how can an owner go wrong with a guy who will touch the ball 450 times?

It's easy when you consider the issues surrounding this do-everything running back.

First, and foremost, Johnson is in the middle of a bitter contract dispute. The Johnson camp is talking holdout, if he doesn't get Dwight Freeney-type money, while the KC brass believes Johnson should honor the last year of his current deal.

A holdout could devastate a fantasy owner, who might lose Johnson for several games or more.

Now, if Johnson signs a new contract or simply plays out his current one, there's still no guarantee that he'll reproduce last season's numbers. In fact, the odds are heavily against him.

All-pro guard Will Shields retired, meaning the Chiefs have lost two of the NFL's all-time best offensive linemen in consecutive seasons (Willie Roaf called it quits heading into 2006).

If this isn't enough to give a fantasy owner a moment of pause, consider that the Chiefs are intent upon starting Brody Croyle at quarterback. Croyle has tossed just seven passes in two NFL seasons. Imagine how defenses are going to load up on Larry Johnson, until Croyle proves he can be any type of vertical threat.

While the threat of a holdout is a difficult intangible, these other issues are much more palatable problems.

Even if Johnson plays, he's no better than the number 8 pick in most fantasy drafts. Even this low, he's a very scary first-rounder.