With national signing day quickly approaching on February 6, college programs will have their futures in the hands of a bunch of 17 and 18 year old kids. But how important are those recruiting classes, really? Just for our purposes, we will look at the Rivals.com top 25 recruiting classes of 2005, and see where those schools are. All of those players would have been juniors or redshirt sophomores this past season.

1. Southern Cal
2. Florida State
3. Oklahoma
4. Tennessee
5. Nebraska
6. Michigan
7. Miami-FL
8. Texas A&M
9. California
10. Georgia
11. Iowa
12. Ohio State
13. Auburn
14. Virginia Tech
15. Florida
16. Maryland
17. Clemson
18. Alabama
19. Virginia
20. Texas
21. Arizona
22. LSU
23. South Carolina
24. Arkansas
25. Penn State

The top 2004 classes (where the players would have been juniors or seniors this year) are similar, with only Arizona, Iowa, Nebraska, Clemson, Virginia, Virginia Tech and South Carolina not making that list.

So, as you can see, great recruiting classes don't necessarily make for great programs. Florida State, Miami and Texas A&M fell precipitously, and each had recruiting classes in the top 15 in both 2004 and 2005. Maryland and Alabama had top 20 classes both years, and they should have reaped the rewards in 2007, but Maryland finished just 6-7, while the Crimson Tide were 7-6.

So, although national signing day is like a national holiday in some parts of the country, it certainly isn't a predictor of future success or failure. It's simply a gauge of perceived talent coming in. Whether or not that talent flourishes is an entirely different matter.